Tom Bodrovics welcomes Peter Goodburn, founding partner of WaveTrack International to the show. They discuss the impact of recent geopolitical events in the Middle East on financial markets, with a focus on commodities and metals. Goodburn, an advocate of Elliott Wave analysis, emphasized that this method discounts fundamental news, with price action preceding exogenous events. He cited the recent decline in precious metals, despite expectations of a safe-haven rally, as an example of this phenomenon. Goodburn also discussed the “shock pop drop” cycle, a concept he introduced in 2010 to explain the behavior of stock and commodity markets since the Great Depression. According to this framework, the financial crisis of 2008 was the “shock,” followed by a “pop” phase of commodity inflation, which is still ongoing and expected to last until the end of the decade. The subsequent “drop” phase will be characterized by a collapse in asset prices.
Goodburn expects interest rates to rise significantly in the coming years, with the Fed funds rate potentially reaching 10%. He also discussed the implications of the US dollar’s bearish long-term outlook for commodities and the potential for a significant increase in oil prices in the future. Goodburn provided specific price targets for various commodities, including gold, silver, platinum, and uranium, based on Elliott Wave analysis. He also highlighted the importance of questioning mainstream narratives and conducting independent research in financial markets. Goodburn encouraged listeners to explore WaveTrack International’s reports and services for further insights.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:05 – Geopolitical Events Market Impact
00:06:20 – Shock Pop Drop Cycle
00:12:26 – Inflation & Rates Path
00:13:41 – Dollar Bearish Outlook
00:14:52 – Copper Price Manipulation
00:16:09 – Pandemic Inflation Impulse
00:20:43 – Copper Crude Ratio Analysis
00:33:34 – Gold Silver Reaction
00:36:18 – Precious Metals Technicals
00:43:35 – Silver Targets Strategies
00:47:47 – Platinum Outperformance Forecast
00:53:12 – Uranium Market Roadmap
00:57:33 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/ElliottWave_WTI
Website: https://wavetrack.com
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter’s first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle.
He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott’s (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled “the Elliott Wave Principle” (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.
Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences.
He has published many of his forecasts in various journals over the last twenty years including Currency Confidential, Managed Derivatives, Investment Management, The Ringsider, Market Technician, and quoted by many others, including Metal Bulletin, The Speculator, Focus, Fund Investment, International Herald Tribune, and Reuters. It has brought him in contact with the many diverse fields of finance, delivering presentations for major industry governing bodies and many corporate clients.
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