Tom welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, senior portfolio manager and senior investment advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, to discuss the significant themes and market dynamics of 2025. Carrasco highlights the remarkable performance of gold and silver, which is currently hitting all-time highs. He attributes this to the end of the petrodollar system and a massive power shift from credit to hard assets, with gold leading this transition. Carrasco emphasizes that the easy money made in the past three years of building positions is over, and the focus should now be on the next leg up for precious metals. Carrasco identifies several key indicators supporting this shift, including the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade, rising long-term interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. He argues that central banks are losing control and will resort to printing money, which will drive up the price of gold.
Carrasco also notes that the value of fiat currencies is declining, making gold and silver more attractive as hedges against government policies and currency devaluation. The discussion touches on the importance of understanding the credit cycle and the role of gold as a hedge against bad government policies. Carrasco mentions that central banks are increasingly positioning themselves in gold, surpassing US treasuries in gold reserves. He predicts that the transition from credit to hard assets will continue, with gold and silver acting as lifeboats in a drowning monetary system.
Carrasco also discusses the performance of his conservative portfolio, which beat the benchmark by over 40% in 2025. He attributes this to the strengthening of positions in precious metals and the revaluation of fiat currencies against gold. He advises investors to focus on allocation rather than price, suggesting that a 30% allocation to precious metals is a good starting point. The conversation also covers the role of silver, which Carrasco sees as having more room to grow due to a structural deficit in production. He highlights the importance of stock selection and the potential for significant gains in silver producers. Carrasco also touches on the energy sector, noting that while oil is necessary, the energy complex is changing, and nuclear power may play a bigger role in the future. In conclusion, Carrasco advises investors to position themselves for the coming chaos by focusing on gold and silver as monetary insurance. He believes that the current environment presents an opportunity for significant gains in precious metals and that investors should start building their allocations now.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – 2025 Year Review
00:03:00 – Fiat to Hard Assets Shift
00:08:50 – Borrowing Fiat Strategies
00:12:40 – C.B. Positioning Chart
00:16:26 – 2026 Outlook Themes
00:19:10 – Silver Fundamentals Discussion
00:21:00 – New Tech & Silver Battery?
00:26:20 – Critical Metal Supplies
00:34:50 – Positioning & Emotions
00:38:23 – Mining Company Selection
00:47:38 – Silver Price Vs. Oil
00:51:57 – Carry Trade Risks
00:56:53 – Portfolio Allocation
01:01:08 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/ijcarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.com
E-Mail: mailto:jaime@jcwealth.ca
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
“Like one’s financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails.”
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