Tom welcomes Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to share his insights on various commodities, with a significant focus on silver and gold. McGlone expresses concerns about silver’s recent 210% gain over the past year, suggesting that it has entered a blowoff stage, a characteristic of the late phases of a bull market. He advises caution, indicating that the high price could incentivize supply and de-incentivize demand, potentially leading to a correction.
McGlone also discusses the gold-silver ratio, noting that it has dropped significantly, and compared it to historical ratios, suggesting that silver might be overvalued relative to gold. McGlone highlights the importance of considering the supply-demand dynamics and price elasticity of commodities. He pointed out that silver’s price has increased rapidly, which could lead to increased supply and a subsequent price correction. He also mentioned that the current low volatility in the stock market and the high price of gold relative to the S&P 500 could indicate an overdue correction in the stock market.
The discussion also touches on the geopolitical risks and their potential impact on commodities. McGlone mentioned the ongoing tensions with Iran and the potential for a significant geopolitical event to disrupt markets. He also discussed the role of China in the global commodity market, noting that China’s export-driven economy could contribute to deflationary pressures.
McGlone expressed a bearish view on cryptocurrencies, comparing them to the dot-com bubble and suggesting that the massive speculation in the crypto market could lead to a significant correction. He also mentioned that the launch of crypto ETFs and the support from former President Trump could have contributed to the peak in the crypto market. In conclusion, McGlone advises listeners to be cautious and to look for opportunities to lighten up on rapidly appreciating risk assets. He suggests the current environment could be an ideal opportunity for traders to take advantage of volatility and to be underweight on risk assets.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:23 – Silver Market Chatter
00:01:56 – Silver Overbought Signals
00:03:06 – Underwear Drawer Supply
00:05:46 – Gold-Silver-Oil Analysis
00:10:44 – Gold Rally and Volatility
00:16:30 – S&P to Gold Ratio
00:19:15 – Alpha in T-Bonds
00:24:38 – Trump Vs. Powell Concerns
00:26:34 – Tariffs Ruling
00:28:44 – China & Geopolitics
00:34:55 – Coming Deflation & Markets
00:37:42 – Crypto Outlook
00:40:02 – Key Commodities for 2026
00:41:25 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/mikemcglone11
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service. Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.
Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor’s of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.
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